Demographic Transition in Thailand

• Population as enumerated by the censuses.

Year Population

1910 8.3 Million 1919 1929 1937 1947 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 9.2 Million 11.5 Million 14.5 Million 17.4 Million 26.3 Million 34.4 Million 44.5 Million 54.5 Million 60.9 Million 65.4 Million* * Cross border migrants were included.

Population in Thailand increased 8 folds, from 8.3 m. in 1910 to 65.4 m. in 2010.

Demographic Transition in Thailand

Number (mill.) Rate (per 1,000) Population CBR CDR

• • The “population explosion” in Thailand occurred during 1950s, 1960s to 1970s.

CBR (>4%) – CDR (<1%)  Growth rate >3% per year.

Demographic Transition in Thailand

Number (mill.) Rate (per 1,000) CDR CBR Population

• • • Now, the “ Thai population ” is stabilizing at 64-65 million.

The population growth rate is 0.5% per year.

CBR (1.2%) – CDR (0.7%)  GR of 0.5% per year.

The reduction of growth rate, from >3% (40 years ago) to 0.5% (now) is due mainly to sharp decline in fertility during the past 3 decades.

CBR at 4% (40 years ago) to 1.2% (now).

Fertility Transition in Thailand

Four periods of fertility

transition in Thailand: 1. High fertility : before 1970 2. Fertility decline : 1970–1990 3. Low fertility : 1991–1996 4. Below replacement fertility : 1997–present Note : SPC SOFT CPS = Survey of Population Change = Survey of Fertility in Thailand = Contraceptive Prevalence Survey LS NS CUPS = Longitudinal Survey = National Survey = Contraceptive Use Patterns in Thailand

Fertility Transition in Thailand

Number of births (100,000)

“Replacement level” Note: Before 2009, numbers of births are from vital registration and TFRs are from Survey of Population Change. After 2009, numbers of births are from projection and TFRs are from logistic fitted.

• • • • Number of births per year has been declining.

From 1963-1983, “one million birth population cohort” In 2010, 0.78 million births registered.

TFR a 2, at least 0.9 million births needed.

If TFR at 2020 = 1.2, number of births would be 0.6 million.

Fertility Transition in Thailand Average number of children per woman (throughout her childbearing period) Whole kingdom 1.5

Urban 1.0

Rural (Source: SPC 2005 – 2006) 1.7

Highland ethnic groups Karen 2.2

Hmong 4.8

(Source: Gray, et al. 2004) Region Bangkok Central 0.9

1.2

North Northeast 2.0

South 1.6

1.5

(Source: SPC 2005 – 2006) Muslims in 3 most southern provinces 3.4

(Source: Est. from RH Survey 2003) Cross-border migrant women Myanmar 3.6

(Source: Pimonpan & Sukanya, 2004)

Number of years for TFR to decline from 5.5 to 2.2

Age group Thailand: Population in broad age groups, 2000-2030 (thousand) 2000 2010

NUMBER

2020 Low projection

0-14 15-29 30-64 (15-64) 65+ Total 15,674 15,517 27,198 (42,715) 3,958 62,347 14,629 16,076 32,183 (48,259) 5,251 68,139 12,661 14,989 34,539 (49,528) 7,594 69,782

2030

10,203 13,857 34,199 (47,956) 11,209 69,369 PERCENTAGE

Low projection

0-14 15-29 30-64 (15-64) 65+ 25 25 44 (69) 6 21 24 47 (71) 8 18 21 50 (71) 11 15 20 49 (69) 16 Total 100 100 100 100 Source: Author’s calculation; figures from United Nations Population Division, 2008

Trends in percentage of population aged 65+

Source: United Nations Population Division 2008, medium projection.

Thailand’s new demographic situation

• • • • • • • • Nearing end of population growth Remarkable change in age pyramids Declining child and young adult population Ageing population Demographic dividend ended Migration patterns lowering av. education Population decline in many rural areas Growth of the medium cities

Population Pyramids of Thailand 1960-2030

Thailand: Index of Growth of Age Groups, 2000-2030

Population Ageing and Growth of the Older Population, Thailand 1970-2030

Impact of Fertility Decline • • Decrease in number of students entering compulsory education, especially primary schools in rural villages.

School size in 2008

13,909 schools with less than 120 students.

381 schools of less than 20 students.

262 schools with no students.

Caused by a) Declining number of births b) Parents’ out-migration c) Commuting to urban schools because of better roads and transportation

Population-responsive policies

• • • • • How to best utilize and care for growing elderly population? How to raise human capital of a shrinking workforce?

How to prepare health care workforce to adapt to changing care needs?

How to best utilize foreign workers?

How to plan for growing cities and rural population decline?

Living arrangements of persons age 60 and above, Thailand 1986-2007

Percentage of households having members attending post secondary education, by indicator of economic status

Influencing population trends

• • • Over three decades, Thailand focused on lowering fertility rates Total fertility rate has fallen to 1.5, far below replacement level Longer-term implications of fertility maintained at this level or below are negative: – Population ageing – Contraction of workforce – Negative population momentum – population decline

Policy Consideration • • More emphasis should be on quality than on quantity of births.

Thailand should have both pro- and anti-natalist policy : – Pro-natalist : among adults, intended couples.

– Anti-natalist : among adolescents.

Births from adolescent mothers, 2009

Age of mother % Number (x 1,000) Under 15 Under 20 0.38

16.08

2.9

120.1

Source: Calculated from registered births reported in Public Health Statistics, not adjusted for under registration.

Policy Consideration • • • Incentives for pro-natalist : Tax reduction for unlimited number of children.

Revise the regulation on the limited 3 children to receive financial and welfare assistance from the government.

Any incentive measure must not lead to discrimination of labour employment and promotion.

Learning from Asian neighbours

• • • • Other low-fertility Asian countries are seriously concerned Too slow in introducing pro-natalist policies Thailand should now introduce a set of measures to facilitate raising of children: – Paid maternity (and paternity) leave – Flexible working hours – Eldercare support – Subsidized childcare – Tax incentives and/or baby bonus schemes Can such measures work?