JFeyen_AMS_2012_v3

download report

Transcript JFeyen_AMS_2012_v3

Improving NOAA’s Capacity to Address
Coastal Inundation Events
The Storm Surge Roadmap and the Way Forward
Jesse C. Feyen
Storm Surge Roadmap Portfolio Manager
Office of Coast Survey
Thanks to Numerous Co-Authors…
• NOS/Coast Survey
Development Lab
– Yuji Funakoshi, Machuan
Peng, Jindong Wang, Frank
Aikman, Teresa Fleisher
• NWS/National Hurricane
Center
– Jamie Rhome
• NWS/Meteorological
Development Lab
– Arthur Taylor, Amy Haase,
Anne Myckow
• NWS HQ
– Jennifer Sprague
Office of Coast Survey
• NWS/NCEP/Environmental
Modeling Center
– Hendrik Tolman, Andre van
der Westhuysen, Arun Chawla,
Iliya Rivin
• SocResearch Miami
– Betty Morrow
• NCAR/Societal Impacts
Program
– Jeff Lazo
The Vision
Highly accurate, relevant, and timely information
CLEARLY COMMUNICATED
which results in reductions in loss of life and
ensures communities are resilient
Office of Coast Survey
NOAA’s Storm Surge Roadmap
• Plan for improving models, products and services
• Provides a common direction for the agency
• Led by cross-NOAA team of experts
– Executive oversight by NOS and NWS
– Action team with NWS, NOS, and OAR experts in
meteorology, oceanography, topobathy, GIS, modeling,
observations, social science, outreach, …
Bottom line: first comprehensive strategy to
holistically address needs and establish a
community response
Office of Coast Survey
The Bottom Line for NOAA
Customers Ask:
Roadmap Goals:
• Who will get flooded?
1. Accurately determine storm
How much?
water levels
– Total Water Level (TWL) models with
• When will it arrive and
surge + tides + waves + rivers
leave?
– Uncertainty (ensembles, probabilistic )
• What will the impacts be? 2. Intuitively describe inundation
• How often will it occur?
as flooding above ground level
– In statements and maps
• How should I act?
3. Communicate actionable
information
– Based on social science
Office of Coast Survey
Surge Model Development Efforts
• Moving toward total water level modeling
– Adding tides to operational surge model SLOSH
– Implementing extratropical surge+tide model ESTOFS
– Coupling surge (ADCIRC) and wave (WAVEWATCH
III®) models in the Nearshore Wave Prediction System
• Accelerating transition of research to operations
– IOOS testbed for evaluating costs and benefits of
transitioning community models to operations
– Investigating ensemble approaches to support multiple
surge models in the future
Office of Coast Survey
Adding Tides to SLOSH
• Tide constituent data from ADCIRC models
• Experimental use this hurricane season
Surge
+
Tides
Office of Coast Survey
= SLOSH+Tides
Extratropical Surge and Tide Prediction
• Extratropical Surge+Tide
Operational Forecast System
(ESTOFS) operational in spring
• Uses community-based ADCIRC
model with GFS winds
• Coupled to WAVEWATCH III® for
Nearshore Wave Prediction
System (NWPS)
• Output in NetCDF and 2.5 km NDFD GRIB2
• http://nomad1.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/raid2/estofs/
Office of Coast Survey
IOOS Testbed: using Community-Based
Models to Improve Operations
• Provides shared, systematic methodology for
evaluating benefits of research models for
transition to operations
• Coastal inundation subgroup
– Tropical (Ike, Rita) and extratropical (Scituate, MA)
– Evaluating SLOSH, ADCIRC, FVCOM, SELFE for
surge predictions, coupled to wave models SWAN,
SWAVE, WWIII, WWM
Office of Coast Survey
Ensemble Storm Surge Modeling:
Combining Multiple Predictions
• Ensemble approach requires:
– Multiple simulations (including both multiple forcing of
one model and multiple surge models)
– Statistical assessment of the ensemble and its
members
• Developing ensemble of forecast tracks
– Tracks generated by forecasts and dynamical models
(e.g., NHC, GFDL, HWRF, GFS, UKMET, ECMWF…)
– P-Surge adopted to use multiple modeled tracks, and
later other surge models can be added to ensemble
Office of Coast Survey
Office of Coast Survey
Office of Coast Survey
Making Surge Statements Intuitive
Previous National Hurricane Center Statement:
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW SOUTH OF VENICE AND IN
FLORIDA BAY.
Current National Hurricane Center Statement:
STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW SOUTH OF VENICE AND IN
FLORIDA BAY ... WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ... THE SURGE COULD
PENETRATE AS FAR INLAND AS ABOUT 10 MILES FROM THE SHORE WITH DEPTH GENERALLY
DECREASING AS THE WATER MOVES INLAND.
• Describes flooding above ground level to reduce confusion about
datums and location
• Also describes extent of flooding inland
• Local Weather Forecast Office products have followed suit
Office of Coast Survey
Making Probabilistic Surge Guidance
Intuitive: Flooding Above Ground Level
• Drives forecast products; experimental for 2012
– http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/phish/
Office of Coast Survey
Communicating Actionable Surge
Information
• Employing social science techniques to assess
user’s needs and design new products
• Results show a significant portion of the surge
vulnerable population does not understand:
– what storm surge is, their vulnerability, what the
forecast information means, and the potential impacts
– people desire more info but unsure of how
• Now evaluating new product prototypes
– High resolution inundation graphics in development
and testing with public, EMs, media
Office of Coast Survey
Making Surge Information Accessible
• Storm surge listed
on NOAAWatch,
NOAA’s all hazards
monitor
• Centralized NOAA
website on storm
surge expertise to
be released this
year
Office of Coast Survey
Office of Coast Survey