Transcript Today*s Safer Trucks - Freight and Logistics Council of Western
National Truck Plan: Modernising the Australian Truck Fleet
Fremantle, 13 June 2014 1
Who is TIC?
• Truck Industry Council, formed 2001 – Previously Commercial Vehicle Committee of the Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries • Promotes new trucks as:
“Safer, Greener, Essential”
• 9 full members, 17 truck brands (March 2014) • 3 associate members (engine & component suppliers)
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Australian Truck Market: 17 TIC Member Truck brands
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Engine & Major Component Brands Represented
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45000
Australian Truck Market (ALL > 3,500kg)
Australian Truck Market by Volume
40000 35000 30000 31673 34732 33499 38131 36622 28654 29393 27858 30745 30645 30100 25000 20000 18708 17923 20517 23544 15000 10000 5000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
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18000 16000 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 17726
Australian Truck Market:
Source of Australian Trucks
2006 CY 2011 CY 14052 15050 2012 CY 7493 6226 0 84 111 China Japan Europe Australia 2863 1672 1800 Nth America 0 134 65 Korea Total Truck Market: 30,745 Units (2012)
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60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 49.1% 50.7% 50.8%
Australian HD Truck Segment by Source
2006 (%) 2011 (%) 2012 (%)
Total HD Truck Market:
11,378 Units (2012) HD definition: All 4x2 and 4x4 over 39t GCM + all Multi-Axle
NOTE: Australia total INCLUDES, all Kenworth, all Mack, local IVECO & local (most) Volvo
19.8% 17.9% 17.2% 19.2% 17.8% 15.8% 12.0% 13.6% 16.1% 10.0% 0.0% Australia Japan Nth America
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TIC’s Proactive Stance on Emissions Performance
• TIC has been working with government to develop emissions ADRs since 2002 • It take over 60 post 2007 trucks to equal the PM emissions of just 1 pre 1995 truck
1 x Pre 1995
EQUALS
60 x Post 2007
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National Truck Plan (NTP) – V4 2014-2022
• • • • Contains proposals that will assist government achieve its goals for – environment, – – public health, and safety Investment allowance restricted to trucks with Gross Vehicle Mass > 4,500 kg. Matches those trucks that are eligible for Road User Charge Assume Carbon Tax component NOT applied 1 Jul 14 A document updated 1-2 times/yr to adjust to policy and market changes
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Plan seeks to address average age:
Today’s technologies to modernise the fleet Ta bl e 2 . 1
A BS M ot or Veh ic l e C en su s d at a f or 2 0 1 0 , 2 0 1 1 & 2 0 12 Truck type As at 31 Mar 2010 As at 31 Jan 2011
No.
115,843 Average age (yrs) 10.9
No.
119,539 Average age (yrs) 10.9
Light rigid* Heavy rigid † Articulated ‡ Non-freight carrying § 315,435 82,436 22,533 15.4
10.9
14.0
318,223 85,965 22,656 15.5
11.3
14.1
All trucks registered 536,247 13.68
546,383 13.77
As at 31 Jan 2012
No.
124,291 Average age (yrs) 10.9
322,115 87,995 15.6
11.5
22,722
557,123
14.2
13.85
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Proposed Incentives
• • • National Truck Plan offers government a 5-year proposal to modernise the truck fleet The proposed incentive is in two parts: 1.
2.
A 15% investment allowance for new trucks meeting the latest emissions standard A 25% investment allowance for new trucks exceeding the current standard, such as alternative fuel vehicles and hybrids A potential funding option is: 1.
2.
A Road User Charge varied by the emissions standard of the vehicle (Fuel Tax Credit lower for older trucks).
Note: Savings here help pay for the investment allowances This option (outlined in NTP – V4) details an incentive plan that is revenue neutral (or cash positive) over 5 years
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4 6
Tax Credit vs Emissions Standard (V4 Proposal)
Possible Fuel Tax Credit by Emissions ADR and Financial Year
14 12.643
12.003
12 11.153
10.303
10 9.453
8.603
8 7.753
Pre-ADR70 ADR70/00 ADR80/00 ADR80/01 & 80/02 ADR80/03 ADR80/04 (or >80/03) Current System (NOT Including Carbon Tax Effect) 6.903
6.053
5.203
2 0 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19
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Cashflow over 5-Year Period
Incentive Revenue Positive over 5 years
Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
By end Year 5
Savings By Year Financial Year $m
2014-15 0.0
2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 235.5
338.9
324.5
315.2
292.8
1,507.0
Cost of Investment Allowance ($m)
0.0
250.9
278.2
309.9
321.8
298.6
1,459.5
Net for Year Cumulative $m
0 -15.4 60.7
14.6
-6.6 -5.8
$m
0 -15.4 45.2
59.9
53.3
47.5
47.5
Net revenue exceeds cost during year 2, and remains ahead.
NOTE: By 2020, HVCI Reform model (Mass-Distance-Location) may be in place
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Cumulative avoided health costs: Targeted vs BAU scenarios
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required average growth rate Forecast
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Total Non-Budget benefits
Table 3.6
Benefit Calculations: Adopting an Effective Truck Incentive Plan that achieves the Targeted Scenario $Million (2012 Basis)
Benefit Description Comment Avoided Health Costs Avoided Fatalities Reduced CO 2 / Carbon Tax Operator Direct savings
Totals
Low Range Estimate 881.1
135.2
45.7
2,510.2
3,572
Median Range Estimate 1,881.6
157 53.7
2,815.4
4,908
High Range Estimate 2,949.5
221 75.5
3,786.1
7,032
Refer Appendix C for further details Refer Appendix E for further details.
Cost of one life lost consistent with Dept of Finance and Deregulation figure Refer Appendix E for further details
economy gains post 2017 >5%
Refer Appendix E for further details Benefits calculated to 2022 only, but will continue beyond this date
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Headline Figures
• Total net revenue gain of $47million in 5 years Cost savings could continue beyond the 5 years, or can revert to an alternative HV Charging & road funding model after 2020 • Total non-budget Benefits of between $3.57 billion and $7.03 billion by 2022 • Fleet renewal accelerated by 102,000 trucks • Timed to extract maximum benefit from current HV pricing scheme before any HVCI Reform
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Government and NTP: Common Goals
• • • Ageing truck fleet and transport workforce The NTP aims to significantly reduce the truck fleet age and with more modern trucks new (younger) drivers will be enticed to the transport industry Improving road transport safety The NTP will modernise the national truck fleet bringing new trucks with the latest safety features (ABS, FUPS, ESC) Reduce road transport fuel use and emissions The NTP will significantly reduce the number of pre 1995 Trucks on the road, replacing them with trucks that have the latest emission technology (Euro 5 and 6) and from 2017 new trucks will potentially benefit from legislated fuel consumption improvements in Europe, USA and Japan
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Government and NTP: Common Goals
• • Increase productivity The NTP will result in a younger truck fleet, with new trucks offering much higher levels of telematics data. New trucks with RFS will replace older trucks with non RFS compliant suspension systems. These features can be used for HML, just one example of increased productivity gained from a newer truck fleet Improved data sharing By replacing the number of pre 1995 trucks in the national truck fleet with new trucks, the NTP will raise the level of truck telemetry and data gathering, much of this data cannot be gathered on pre 1995 (non CAN) trucks. This increased level of truck data could be shared and used by the broader Australian transport industry and government organisations
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Thank you
Tony McMullan, Chief Executive Officer – Mob. 0427 941281 Mark Hammond, Chief Technical Officer – Mob. 0408 225212 www.truck-industry-council.org
Regular updates and monthly truck market commentary
National Truck Plan 2014-2022