Transcript Household formation

Household formation trends: evidence
informing the DCLG 2011-based projections
Tim Lyne, Experian
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Overview
 The DCLG household projections – summary of the approach
 What the data available at the time of producing the projections told us about
household formation
 What evidence is there from current data?
 Some key factors that we might want to consider for future updates to the
projections
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DCLG household projections - approach
 The DCLG household projections are produced using a two-stage approach.
 Stage 1 produces projections using long-term trends in household formation by
age, gender and marital status drawing data from 1971, 1981, 1991, 2001 and
(limited) 2011 Censuses.
 The projections methodology uses time-series modelling which weights together
simple and dampened logistics trends.
 The assumptions about household formation are applied to trend-based
projections of household population derived from ONS data.
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Assumptions about institutional population
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Marital status projections
 Stage 2 splits the aggregate household projections from Stage 1 into household
types using information from 2001 and 2011 Censuses.
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Estimated headship (and non-headship) rates are projected forward using a
modified two-point exponential model - similar to the methodology used in
other home countries.
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DCLG 2011-based household projections
Data inputs and rationale
 For the update key datasets include:
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2011-interim sub-national population projections
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Census 2011 key statistics and quick statistics
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Labour Force Survey data
 Approach agreed with DCLG and Steering Group was to remain as
methodologically consistent with the 2008-based projections as possible whilst
making the most of the new data available.
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Census 2011 households vs 2008-based projections
Households - England
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Census 2011 households vs 2008-based projections
Adult household population - England
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Census 2011 households vs 2008-based projections
Average household size - England
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Census 2011 households vs 2008-based projections
Average household size – Greater London
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Household formation by age
 At the time of producing the 2011-based household projections Census 2011
data on households by age, gender and marital status was not available
 The Stage 1 methodology used Labour Force Survey data to inform how
household formation has changed by age band since the Census 2001
 LFS data supported anecdotal evidence that household formation rates for
younger age groups had increased more slowly than previously projected or
declined more rapidly than previously projected.
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Household formation by age
Change in HRRs by age between 2001 and 2011
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What does this mean for projections of AHS?
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Average household size UK - LFS
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Household formation by household type
 Phase 2 splits the household projections from Phase 1 into detailed household
types.
 The projections are split by type and age (and gender for one person
households) generated using headship rates generated from bespoke Census
tables of which equivalents were not yet available for 2011.
 Estimates for the each household type were generated from available Census
2011 data – largely for the totals for each household type not split by age.
 Disaggregated using previous estimates for 2011 calibrated to 2011 household
population data by age and gender.
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Stage 2 household types
Projected growth and the Census 2011
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Stage 2 household types (2)
Projected growth and the Census 2011
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Updating the household projections – points to
consider
 Discontinuity of the definition of households and household representatives in the
Censuses
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1971-1991 HRP=oldest male
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2001-2011 HRP=oldest economically active person
 Marital status projections – latest available 2008-based for England and Wales
 Should the Labour Force Survey be given greater weighting?
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Greater weight given to household formation by age in Stage 1
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Explore whether LFS data could be used for Stage 2
 Whether there are other sources of data that can reliably inform the household
projections:
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Council tax statistics
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Housing stock - housing starts/ completions
 The future of the Census – Beyond 2011…
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Summary
 The 2011 household projections used the best information available at the time.
 Household formation slowed dramatically between 2001 and 2011 but this was
not uniform across age groups and household types.
 The trends captured in the 2011-household projections appear to have been
played out in more detailed results from Census 2011.
 Perhaps supports greater reliance on Labour Force Survey and possibly other
data sources going forward?
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