Transcript Operationalising the Allied Maritime Strategy
Allied Maritime Command Maritime Security at a Crossroads: Operationalising the Allied Maritime Strategy
Professor James Henry Bergeron Chief Political Advisor Allied Maritime Command (comments personal)
Agenda
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MarCom – Who we are
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Operations
OCEAN SHIELD ACTIVE ENDEAVOUR UKRAINE RESPONSE
Revitalisation of NATO’s maritime forces Questions and Discussion
NATO – Maritime Evolution 1949 - 2009
The Alliance Maritime Strategy
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Deterrence and Collective Defence Crisis Management Cooperative Security, Outreach and Partnership Maritime Security
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Signed in 2011 needs to be fully implemented Maritime Security is the bedrock on which all AMS tasks are achieved.
MarCom Roles and Responsibilities
“ HQ MARCOM is responsible for maritime competency and acts as NATO's principal maritime advisor. It maintains comprehensive situational awareness throughout the maritime environment, and is ready to command a maritime heavy SJO or act as the Maritime Component (MCC) to support up to a MJO+.”
Maritime NATO 2014
1. Reform of Maritime Security Operations: Extension/Reform of Operation Active Endeavour and Ocean Shield: Expand beyond CT and CP; greater reliance on Associated Support 2. Revitalisation of NATO’s Standing Naval Forces; better training, varied missions; regional exercises and engagement; a full spectrum Task Force structure? (MCM, C4ISR, Interoperability) 3. Explore new affiliations with existing CTFs as follow-on maritime forces (potential on-call Maritime Contingency Force) 4. Maintaining Strategic Engagement and Situational Awareness on the Seas 5. Enhanced maritime engagement with Partners 6. Training and Exercise: making a success of CFI at Sea 7. Maintain NATO-EU cooperation in maritime security; explore ways to deepen it. EUMSS-AMS discussion?
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Reforming Op ACTIVE ENDEAVOUR
Mission
• Art 5 Response to 9/11 to counter the threat of maritime terrorist activities – CT in a single operational environment? • Maritime Situational Awareness and engagement is key aspect 5 partners (Russia, Morocco, Israel, Georgia, Ukraine) • 13 yrs old – regional relevance has waned – seen as narrow when placed alongside growing security challenges of the Med region - Mission Review debate ongoing.
Intent
• Move to a Network Operation less reliant on military forces • Respond to regional concerns and security challenges by broadening operation but with approvals clearly defined.
• Ensure a Joint approach with other environments and partners.
End state
• Maintain Connectivity through “regional network”.
• Ensure presence in Mediterranean. • Reinvigorate Partnerships with Med Dialogue/ MOU nations.
Counter Piracy Operations
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Long history of Piracy off the Horn of Africa International response to piracy in 2008 Coincide with WFP tasking into Somalia EU Operation ATALANTA launched end of 2008 NATO and Combined Maritime Forces (CMF) engaged in 2009 ‘Big 3’ and Independent Deployers: Unity of Effort
20 18 16 14 12 10 Pirated and Attacks Pirated Only 2007 Reference IRTC Military Protection 2 0 8 6 GoA Piracy Surge 4
Piracy Incident Rate
Incidents - 12 Month Moving Average
Military Containment Dhows in Indian Ocean Piracy Merchant Armed Protection Pre-crisis situation restored
Mission Comparison
Task Force Missions & Tasks Mandated Activity Key Issues NATO EU
• • • Conduct Counter Piracy Operations Encourage Resilience of commercial shipping Support Counter Piracy building initiatives • Protect WFP/AMISOM shipping • Deter/Disrupt piracy and armed robbery in the AOO • Where possible arrest, detain and transfer suspected pirates • Contribute to the monitoring of fishing activity off the coast of Somalia • Active disruption of PAGs • • Patrolling of the IRTC • Border/Coast Line Ops to deter and disrupt ISR (MPA, SSK, FF, Helo, UAV) • KLE/LLE Puntland focussed • NATO Shipping Centre Engagement • • • Active disruption of PAGs WFP & AMISOM protection Legal/Political framework for • arrest and detention MPAs • Regional Capacity Building through EUCAPNESTOR • Limited Regional Capacity Building support to CP building initiatives with regional states • Many assets but often limited flexibility due to national caveats
CMF
• Conduct Counter Piracy Operations in the CMF battle space under a mission based mandate • Actively deter, disrupt and suppress pirate activity • • Shared focus on Counter Terrorism and Patterns of Life Maritime Logistics • MPA (sortie by sortie) • Flexible Force allocation between CTFs 150 & 151 • • Loose Force Structure No Regional Capacity Bldg • No common ROE • Fewer assets for CP as opposed to CT tasking
Reforming Op OCEAN SHIELD
Mission
• Coordinate NATO’s contribution with the International community – CMF, EUNAVFOR, Independent deployers via SHADE • Increase regional maritime security capacity within means • Mandate now extended to end of 2016
Intent
• • Thorough overhaul of OPLAN now underway Broaden Regional Engagement within a Focused Presence approach • • •
Desired Effect
Indian Ocean crucial area to the Alliance. Maintains forward presence in an unstable area Less fixation with low end operations – but able to respond should piracy re-emerge Show NATO relevance to the region and to the Alliance
Impact of the Ukraine Crisis?
1. Deep change in NATO-Russian relations (or reset to 1979); partnership activity stopped.
2. Renewed emphasis on indivisible Alliance security reassurance of Eastern European allies; reassertion of Alliance capabilities and resolve.
3. Closer defence and security cooperation with Ukraine.
4. The Land has bounded back as a critical conflict domain. (Mali, CAR, now Ukraine).
5. Sharper edge to the ‘from Deployed to Prepared NATO’ idea.
Likely to inform all aspects of the Summit, but main outlines will survive
Maritime Assurance Measures
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Immediate Assurance post-Ukraine Crisis
Baltic Presence – SNMCMG1 activation.
Mediterranean Focus is priority for SNMGs.
Black Sea exercise programme will be maintained.
• OOS to be maintained, but not with SNMGs • Additional forces identified for groups
Follow-on Measures
• Permanent Baltic and Mediterranean presence – more Exercises. Black Sea presence as Council decides.
• • SNF Review – expand the size and capabilities of the groups to IRF standard.
Back up deployments with effective STRATCOM.
Longer-term Considerations
• • SACEUR Military Strategic posture review: NCS/NFS, Response Forces, Contingency Planning, etc.
Impact of Ukraine on the Alliance Maritime Strategy
Revitalising NATO’s Naval Forces
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4 Standing Naval Groups represent majority of NATO’s IRF 2 Mine Countermeasures Groups, 2 Naval Groups
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SNF Challenges 47 year old design – suffered from capability contraction, force flow fatigue leading - excessive demand on too small a force.
Growing disconnect between tasking: Operations vs Contingency vs Training: What is the right balance?
Fit for 21 st Century NRF? Littoral challenges v blue-water posture.
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Reforms being considered: Inject broader capabilities within all groups Reform operations Adjust schedule, more exercises, inject variety; Champion affiliations with national task groups as an on-call contingency force.
Fewer exercises – greater mass – concentrate effort.
The Littoral 2045: Crisis Response, HA/DR
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Global population is expected to grow from 7.2Bn to 8.3 – 10.9Bn
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70% of that growth will be in the poorest 24 countries
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70% Urban, most on the coast, much in shanty-town conditions Urbanisation now at 1.3m / week
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280 mega-cities with over 20m inhabitants
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Sea-levels rise by 0.3 – 0.4m
Almost all have access to internet by 2030
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Maritime Zone