Transcript Jane Elliott Centre for Longitudinal Studies

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What is the potential for a
European multi-national crosscohorts resource
23 June 2010
Jane Elliott
Centre for Longitudinal Studies
CLS is an ESRC Resource Centre based
at the Institute of Education
Outline
What cross-cohort analysis is already taking place?
What are the existing infrastructures and networks?
What are the different models for a multi-national cross
cohorts resource?
Questions for discussion
Existing & potential cross-cohort analyses
Comparison of cohorts born at different times in order to understand
more about:a) Social Change
b) Durability of individual responses under different conditions
Comparison of cohorts born in different places
- environment and health issues
- labour market context
- policy context
- demographic context
Pooling of data to increase power of analyses
3
British Birth Cohort Studies
Fully representative samples of the British population
Based on one week’s births - approximately 17,000 babies
Followed up from birth into adulthood
Four British Birth Cohort Studies
• 1946 : National Survey of Health and Development (MRC
funded)
• 1958 : National Child Development Study
• 1970 : British Cohort Study 1970
• 2000/1: Millennium Cohort Study
1958 & 1970 Birth Cohorts
60
Cohort
Comparisons
50
46
42
Age
40
34
33
30
30
26
23
20
16
11
10
7
0
1950
0
1960
16
Life cycle
effects
10
5
0
1970
1980
Year
1990
2000
2010
Source: Exploring Data (C. Marsh 1988) Figure 6.1 Unemployment as a problem
in Britain: actual and perceived
Source: unemployed claimant count: Employment Gazette Decembet 1982 and May
1986. Percentage naming unemployment as most or second most urgent problem
facing the country: Gallup Political Index monthly.
Proportion of women in paid employment, by age
and cohort
Source: Jenny Neuburger - Paper presented
at CLS June 2008
Examples of research that has used British Birth Cohort data
within the life course framework
The consequences of parental divorce for children
• ELY, M., RICHARDS, M.P.M., WADSWORTH, M.E.J. and ELLIOTT, B.J. (1999) Secular
changes in the association of parental divorce and children’s educational attainment – evidence
from three British birth cohorts. Journal of Social Policy, 28(3), 437-455
Changing levels of social mobility
BLANDEN, J., GOODMAN, A., GREGG, P. and MACHIN, S. (2004) Changes in Intergenerational
Mobility in Britain. In Corak, M (ed), Generational Income Mobility in North America and
Europe. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press
Changes in women’s employment following childbirth
JOSHI, H . and HINDE, P.R.A. (1993) Employment after childbearing in post-war Britain: Cohortstudy evidence on contrasts within and across generations. European Sociological Review,
9(3), 203-227
Cohabiting, marriage and fertility
STEELE, F., KALLIS, C., JOSHI, H. and GOLDSTEIN, H. (2007) Changes in the relationship
between the outcomes of cohabiting partnerships and fertility among young British
women: evidence from the 1958 and 1970 Birth Cohort Studies. CLS Working Paper
2007/4. London: Centre for Longitudinal Studies
What are the existing infrastructures
and networks?
Two contrasting examples – Eucconet and HALCyon
9
The European Child Cohort Network
(EUCCONET)
European Science Foundation Funding:- 5 years, from May 2008 to April
2013
Objectives
•
identifying cohort expertise in Europe;
•
sharing knowledge and experience with a broad range of cohort
experts, including from outside Europe, and establishing a forum for
an easy accessible expertise on these issues in Europe;
•
offering opportunities to go deeper on the cross-country
comparison by sharing tools and questionnaires.
10
Healthy Ageing Across the Life
Course (HALCyon)
HALCyon brings together an interdisciplinary group of scientists
working on nine UK cohort studies to understand three aspects of
healthy ageing: physical and cognitive capability; psychological and
social wellbeing; and the underlying biology of ageing
Eight work packages will investigate how factors like early development,
lifetime health, personality and nutrition, and geographical
movements influence the process of healthy ageing
Funded under the New Dynamics of Ageing Programme – cross council
Research Programme
11
Possible models for a multinational
comparative cohort research resource (1)?
Resource model:
Documentation emphasising common questions and themes
Data harmonisation
Single portal for information on all European cohort studies
Bibliography on existing cross-cohort research
Capacity building in cross national work
Descriptive materials and resources on historical/geographical/policy
context
Opportunities for PIs of cohorts to meet and exchange information
Dedicated staff to facilitate the above and provide a resource to
12 others
Possible models for a multinational
comparative birth cohort research resource (2)?
Science-led model:
Funding specifically for cross-cohort research projects
Documentation & data harmonisation arising from projects
Website to showcase programme of work
- links to cohort studies used
- papers and working papers on funded projects
13
Possible models for a multinational
comparative birth cohort research resource (3)?
Data collection model: European Cohort
Single centrally coordinated study
Federated studies (with a common core?)
Birth/pregnancy single cohort
Two or three cohorts starting at different ages
Science –led : specific hypotheses
Resource – led: Multipurpose resource
14
Adding infrastructure to data?
Scale of European cohort could add additional benefits/infrastructure
Development of new data collection technologies
CAPI testing
Documenting and subseting data
Collection of retrospective life history data
Instrument specification
Interviewer training and acreditation
Safe settings/methodologies for links to administrative and register
data
Biological specimens – storage and retrieval
15
Cohorts and Panels?
Cohort
Individual focus: larger sample more focussed data collection
Cradle to Grave: biomedical focus
Initial recruitment & retention
Triangulated data – teachers, medical examinations
16
Questions for discussion
What are the scientific gains to be made from a multinational
comparative birth cohort research resource?
Should it focus exclusively on recent birth cohorts?
How might such a resource be structured?
What sort of resources are needed to create this?
17
Website
www.cls.ioe.ac.uk
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NCDS Follow-ups and sources of information 1958-2010
Original sample: all living in GB born in one week in 1958
PMS
NCDS1
NCDS2
NCDS3
NCDS4
NCDS5
NCDS6
(1958)
Birth
(1965)
7
(1969)
11
(1974)
16
(1981)
23
(1991)
33
(2000)
42
(2002-3)
44-45
(2004-5)
46
(2008-9)
50
17,733a
16,883
16,835
16,915
16,457
15,600
15,145
12,037
11,739
12,316
Mother
Medical
17,415b
—
—
Parents
—
Parents
—
Parents
School
—
School
—
School
Tests
—
Tests
—
Tests
Medical
—
Medical
—
Medical
Subject
—
Subject
—
Subject
—
Subject
Census
—
Census
15,425
15,337
14,647
Biomedical
NCDS7
NCDS8
Tests
12,537
—
Subject
—
Subject
—
Subject
Spouse/
Partner
Biometric measures
Motherc
Blood samples
Children
Saliva sample
11,407
Notes
a: Target sample - Excludes emigrants, refusals & deaths. Includes immigrants at NCDS1-3.
b: Achieved sample - At least on survey instrument partially completed
c: Mother - Could be Cohort Member or spouse/partner
11,419
9,349
—
Subject
—
Subject
Consents to
linkage
Biographical
interview
9,534
9,793