Asymmetric Warfare

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Transcript Asymmetric Warfare

Centre of Excellence - Defence Against Terrorism
Fourth Generations of
Modern Warfare
(4GW)
COL Engr. JÁNOS TOMOLYA Ph.D.
HUN Army
UNCLASSIFIED
Chief of Capabilities
1/26
Subject
: 4th GW
Time
: 20 minutes
Classify
: Unclassified
Agenda
:
1. Introduction;
2. Different classification of war (epochs, waves,
forms);
3. Asymmetric Warfare;
4. Military cultures;
5. Fourth Generation of modern warfare;
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The Next War?
How can we avoid being like the French knights at
the Battle of Agincourt?
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Future Warfare
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Or this one?
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támadások száma attacks
NumberTerrorista
of terrorist
2003-2011
14443
14435
11023
11727
11595
2008
2009
10999
3251
200
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2010
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Military Expenditure
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SIPRI: 1531 billions USD in 2009
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1. Different classification of war:
Epochs
Dr T. Lindsay Moore and Robert J. Bunker :
4 epochs, based on energy sources
 human energy
 animal-based energy
 mechanical energy
Advanced
technology
warfare
 post-mechanical energy:
Non-Western
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warfare
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Waves
Alvin and Heidi Toffler developed a theory of warfare
based on the economic and societal changes of
civilization.
Agricultural war
Industrial-based war (late of 17th century)
Knowledge-based war (from 1980s)
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Forms of warfare
Symmetric
Dissymmetric
Asymmetric
/Eric Walters/
After WWII more than 160 armed conflicts;
75% of them were asymmetric
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Symmetric
In symmetric conflicts, the two opposing
adversaries dispose of armed forces that are
similar in all aspects such as force structure,
doctrine and assets and have comparable
tactical, operational and strategic objectives.
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Dissymmetric
A conflict is dissymmetric when one of the
opposing forces is superior by means of force
structure, doctrine and assets, but both
parties
are
striving
for
similar
political
and military objectives.
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2. Asymmetric Warfare (AW)
One of the opponents is unable or unwilling to wage
the war with comparable force structure, doctrine
and assets and has different political and military
objectives than his adversary.
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Asymmetric Warfare (AW)
 What is it?
 David and Goliath warfare
 Unsophisticated vs. the sophisticated (technologically)
 Poor countries or entities against rich countries or rich entities
 Threat can be internal or external (i.e. Israel, Vietnam or
Afghanistan)
 Often state sponsored/supported
 Attacking opponent via indirect means such as
 Terrorism
 Critical infrastructures
 Avoids combat w/ conventional forces
 Tends to have a purpose that focuses on a force, but not always
the case
 Misc. unconventional means i.e., poisoning water/food supplies,
exploitation of media by staging scenes to sway public opinion.
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3. Military cultures
Clausewitz: „War is an act of force, and there
is no logical limit to the application of that
force.”
The way of application of force depends on the
military culture.
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Kinds of Military Cultures
Material-centric;
Movement-centric;
Guerilla warfare
Orthodox warfare
Forms: terrorism, guerilla warfare, orthodox
warfare;
 Types: anarchism; equality-based; traditionbased; pluralist; secessionist; divider; reformer;
Used methods: coup d’état; exhausting, focus
on military, warfare in build-up areas;
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Material-centric
Indirect approach
 Strategy of „indirect
approach”
 Characteristics:
 Daggering wars;
 Defence;
 Strategic objective:
exhausting of enemy
 Indirect warfare- not only
with military means
 Main services: air force,
navy
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 Preferred by: maritime
powers
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Movement-centric
 Strategy
of
approach”
 Characteristics:
„direct
 Blitzkrieg;
 Offence;
 Strategic objective:
destroy the enemy
 Direct warfare- decisive
maneuvers
 Main services: land force,
 Preferred by: continental
powers
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Guerilla warfare
 Strategy of „indirect
approach in irregular
form”
 Supported by people
 Characteristics:
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 Hit and run actions;
 Offence;
 Strategic objective:
exhausting of enemy,
provoke a collapse
internally
 Media
 Indirect warfare- not
only with military
means
 Main services: land 22/26
force
4. Generations of Warfare
 COL BOYD
 Non-linear warfare
 Focuses on moral-mental-physical
portions of enemy & as single entity
 Focus on the enemy and environment
Knowledge of strategic environment
Interact w/ environment
appropriately
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New dimensions
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Trinity
Clausewitz:
„the war is
monopoly of the state”
government
society
army
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people
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1GW=
Age of Napoleon
Massed
manpower
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2 GW= Age of Firepower
Massed
firepower...
But still in
lines
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3 GW= Age of Maneuver
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4 GW= Age of Independent
Action Cells
Asymmetric
warfare in
irregular form
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4 GW= Age of Independent
Action Cells
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Role of Technology in 4GW
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The “generations of war” model
Peace of
Westphalia
Nuclear
Weapons
Proliferate
Precursor activities –
going back to Alexander
& Sun Tzu (and before)
Fall of
USSR
state vs.
state
2 GW
1
GW
3 GW
States &
nonstates
wage war
State-vs-state—
only “legal” form
of war
New
weapons
&
concepts
New commo &
transport networks
4 GW
States &
non-states
wage war
Nonstate armed groups:
partisans, insurgents,
anarchists, criminal
organizations, etc.
1600
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1700
1800
1900
2000
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Definition
4GW can be defined as a method of warfare that
uses the following to achieve a moral victory:
 Formless and most deadly kind of war
 Undermines enemy strengths (this may seem
obvious, but most of modern warfare has involved
direct attacks on enemy strengths -- find the
enemy army and destroy it).
 Exploits enemy weaknesses.
 Uses asymmetric operations (weapons and
techniques
that
differ
substantially
from
opponents).
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Drivers
The rise of 4GW is both a product and a driver of the
following:
 The loss of the nationstate's monopoly on
violence.
 The rise of cultural,
ethnic, and religious
conflict.
 Globalization (via
technological
integration).
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Characteristics
Violent non-state actor (VNSA) fighting the
state.
lacks hierarchal authority
lack of formal structure
patience and flexibility
ability to keep a low profile when needed
small size
VNSA’s forces are decentralized
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Tactics
4GW is fought on the tactical level via:
 Rear area operations -- 4GW
warriors do not confront a
nation-state's military but
rather it society.
 Psychological operations -terror.
 Ad-hoc innovation -- use of
the enemy's strengths against
itself
 Human shields
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Tactics of 4GW
Ethnic cleansing
Attacking C4I networks
Exploitation of rules of engagement (ROEs)
and International laws of war (ILOW)
Exploitation
of
humanitarian
relief
organizations i.e. Red Crescent, CAIR, etc…
Shift in focus from enemy’s front to his rear;
Use the enemy’s strength against him
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Differences
Many of the methods used in 4GW aren't new and
have robust historical precedent. However, there are
important differences in how it is applied today.
These include:
 Global -- modern technologies and economic
integration enable global operations.
 Pervasive -- the decline of nation-state warfare has
forced all open conflict into the 4GW mold.
 Granularity -- extremely small viable groups and
variety of reasons for conflict.

Vulerability -- open societies and economies.
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Differences II.
Technology -- new technologies have
dramatically increased the productivity of
small groups of 4GW warriors.
Media -- global media saturation makes
possible an incredible level of manipulation.
Networked -- new organizational types made
possible by improvements in technology are
much better at learning, surviving, and
acting.
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4th Generation Warfare (4GW)
Formless and most deadly kind of war
4GW ops are intelligence driven.
Requires
constant
preparation
and
resourcefulness
Distinguishing a combatant from a noncombatant (civil) can be extremely difficult
Can hit anytime, anywhere, anything and
anyone
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Winning a 4GW conflict
Victory in 4GW warfare is won in the moral sphere. The aim
of 4GW is to destroy the moral bonds that allows the organic
whole to exist -- cohesion. This is done by reinforcing the
following (according to Boyd):
Menace. Attacks that undermine or threaten
basic human survival instincts.
Mistrust. Increases divisions between
groups (ie. conservatives and liberals in the
US).
Uncertainty. Undermine economic activity
by decreasing confidence in the future.
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Center of Gravity Is The People
Leverage
unconventional
capabilities
against insurgents. Become cellular like
“them”. Defeat a networked threat with a
network.
Develop small independent action forces
(SIAF).
Establish disciplined, well trained and
highly mobile, counter guerrilla forces.
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Power of Perception & Influence As
“Ammo”
Money is ammunition
Food is ammunition
Medicine is ammunition
Education is ammunition
Fuel is ammunition
Employment is ammunition
Recognition is ammunition
Respect is ammunition
Information and knowledge is ammunition
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Summary
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Questions?
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